Will the 28-Year-Old Kim Jong-un Rule North Korea for Another Half Century?

SEOUL--(Korea Newswire)--Columnist / Han Koo-Hyun
Moscow National University of International Relations(MGIMO) Ph D/
Former Assistant Professor at Hanyang University

The most important question facing us now that Kim Jong-il, the hereditary leader of North Korea, has died is whether his heir-to-the-throne, Kim Jong-un, will successfully reign over North Korea as the third hereditary leader in a row. While the fact that he is still young—only twenty-eight years old—and that he has had his training as Kim Jong-il’s successor for barely two years add to worries, some also speculate that Kim Jong-un is capable of occupying the military, inheriting his father’s Songun politics.

A clear question arises here: “Will Kim Jong-un, now 28 years old, be able to rule North Korea for the next five decades—half a century—to come?” Experts may differ over the specifics of how North Korea will evolve in the aftermath of Kim Jong-il’s death, but at least they univocally agree on the answer to this question: “Never will it be possible!”

Newsweek of the United States said in an article on December 19 how the year 2011 marks the deaths or forced abdications of numerous tyrants and dictators who have wielded absolute power over their respective countries for several decades. These include: Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, age 75, the former president of Tunisia, now sentenced to 35 years in prison; Hosni Mubarak, age 83, the former president of Egypt, now on trial; Laurent Gbagbo, age 66, the former president of Cote d’Ivoire, also currently on trial; Muamar Qaddafi, age 69, the former leader of Libya who has been murdered; Ali Abdullah Saleh, age 69, the former president of Yemen now caught in power transition; and Kim Jong-il, age 69, now dead. These six absolutist tyrants have all faced tragic deaths or are in the process of facing tragic ends.

It is important to remember that the seemingly impregnable fortresses of tyranny in these countries have all fallen down not by coincidence, but thanks to the maturity of the political consciousness of the respective citizenries, the rising dissatisfaction with the current global economic recession, the influence of regional proximity, and the emergence of the social network services (SNS) as the new media.

No matter how much Kim Jong-un or the military elite try to tighten their control over North Koreans, risking the use of open forces, it will be impossible for them to maintain the status quo for the next fifty years to come. If Kim Jong-un were to repeat the illegitimate and authoritarian patterns of his forefathers, he would have to count not only the cardiac infarction, which seems to be a genetic trait running in his family, as a possible future destiny for him, but also a war criminal trial in Geneva, sentencing, assassination, or violent murder as well.

It would be extremely foolish for Kim Jong-un to lead the post-Kim Jong-il North Korea with attempts at a series of terrorist attacks committed by his forefathers, such as the explosion of a civilian airplane, the assassination of South Korean President or key officials in the government, the murders of civilians with axes, and the murders of soldiers with axes. Neither Kim Jong-un nor the military elite will be willing to risk their fates through such violent means. This will, in turn, loosen their control over the population. The “last emperor” of North Korea is more likely than not to disappear behind the tides of history before becoming used to his new throne.

In 1990, before I took off to Russia to study there, I studied with an American professor who was staying in Korea at the time, fascinated by the Marxist theory of capitalism. Enchanted with communism as a pure subject of academic discipline, the American professor taught Korean students Das Kapital, explaining that the ideological conflict unfolding over the Korean Peninsula was unique, since neither capitalism in the South nor communism in the North were pure ideologies. He pointed out that both countries are engaged in practicing ideologies that have been adapted to the patriarchal, Confucian native culture. He cited the succession of dictatorship between father and son, Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, as well as the authoritarian government in South Korea as his evidence. He had quite an objective, impartial appraisal of the decades-long communist dictatorship of Kim Il-sung in the North and of the succession of different military dictatorships from Park Chung Hee down to Chun Doo Hwan in the South. Twenty years have passed by since then. The third-generation inheritance of communist dictatorship in the North will mark the beginning of the self-destruction of the “Kim Dynasty” in that country.

History shows common conditions and characteristics marking the decline of dynasties and empires. At the heart of such decline often stands a young, not-fully-ready prince, whose succession to the throne causes inevitable conflicts among the powers surrounding him over regency and effective rulership. The conflict eventually leads to bloody destruction of one another. The political chaos and the increasing burdens of heavy taxation, in the meantime, continue to worsen the economy, leaving the country by and large vulnerable to external intrusion. The desperate elite tries to grab and hold on to as much control as possible in the face of imminent collapse, making the situation only worse. North Korea is not exempt from many of these characteristics that are symptomatic of a country’s eventual fall.

The failure of the recent currency reform in North Korea will only accelerate the rate of the country’s collapse. Initiated in order to strengthen the elite’s control over the masses, the reform only backfired, causing negative reactions from among North Koreans who had begun to become used to the market economy through black markets. The utter failure of the attempt has led to an unprecedented hike in inflation. The political instability surrounding the succession of the heir to the throne and the continuing, unpopular inflation are seen as pointing at only one thing: that is, the collapse of North Korea.

According to Davies’ theory cited in Robert Cialdini’s Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion, revolutions are most likely to break out when the masses’ lives seem to improve slowly, only to turn into sudden deterioration again. The leaders of revolution, therefore, are not the traditionally and continually repressed, but those who have experienced the pleasures of a better life during the better economic and social times. The failure of the Russian Revolution, which I witnessed with my own eyes, attests to the power of Davies’ theory. Conservative communists who resisted the conversion into capitalism after the decomposition of Soviet communism led the August Coup in Russia in 1991. The coup ended in 60 hours, however, as it came under severe resistance from the Russian public itself. Russians, having begun to taste the sweetness of capitalism, were not willing to return to the bitter hardships of communism.

Davies’ possession-repression theory can explain a wide range of historical phenomena, including the American Civil War, the civil unrest in the United States in the 1960s, the French Revolution, and the Russian Revolution. All these unrests share the common root in people’s increasing dissatisfaction when their good times abruptly change the course and led them to revisit the displeasures of the old times. The dissatisfaction among the masses building up in North Korea in response to the failed currency reform may well lead to a massive revolution.

Despite the tragic nature of the division of a people that share so much in common, the gap between North Korea and South Korea is only growing at an accelerated speed. Having become a major player in the world economy, South Korea is effectively leading the international markets for shipbuilding, semiconductor production, information technology, and even pop culture, thanks to the Korean Wave (hallyu) reaching a new peak in Asia, the Middle East, and North America. Hallyu is now a major part and basis of worldwide pop culture, comparable in its influence to the Hollywood. North Korea, on the other hand, can be completely destroyed even by just a single heavy rainfall, with its firm fortresses guarding the open executions of innocent people on the streets and millions more dying from hunger and starvation. The decades of its closedness have made the country so susceptible that it would not surprise anyone today to see North Korea collapse overnight.

Ideology explains this stark contrast between the two countries that share the same historical and ethnic origins and language. The pseudo-communism and capitalism unique to the Korean Peninsula that have combined with the indigenous cultures have led to severely divergent outcomes. Even though both ideologies are grounded in Confucian tradition, caving into pseudo-communism has set North Korea on an irreversible path of self-destruction, while pseudo-capitalism has turned South Korea into one of the world’s strongest powers.

Given the symptoms of dynastic decline and the evidence affirming the possession-repression theory of revolutions, North Korea is likely to collapse in the next five years at the latest. The destruction of the North Korean regime will inevitably transform our lives as well. We may be overjoyed at first at the dream of national reunification finally come true, but we will have to struggle with numerous economic and cultural problems. We must not forget the light and shadow of the past two decades of national reunification for Germany, whose social and economic East-West divide still persists. That is why we need to prepare on multiple fronts and aspects for the national reunification of North and South Koreas.

Kim Il-sung ruled North Korea for 46 years; Kim Jong-il, for 18 years. The pressure is building on the new successor, Kim Jong-un, to rule the country as his grandfather and father did for the next half a century. It now remains for the world to watch whether the young ruler will in fact succeed in doing so. The period of five decades, however, appears too long for this inexperienced, young prince.

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